It’s been a month and a half since Bangladesh has been in lockdown. With no bailout or stimulus package in sight for the F&B sector, the slow lifting of restrictions is slowly but surely going to kill a lot of businesses. Since very few businesses can sustain a couple of months without any revenue, what does COVID-19 hold for the future of F&B industry? All hope is not lost.
What’s NOT Going To Change
After the Spanish Flu in 1918, there were similar speculations that people will practice social distancing and that the hospitality industry will collapse. A century later, we can safely say that hasn’t been the case. People will be cautious that’s for sure, but things will fall into place slowly. Just look at Wuhan! Shops and restaurants have already opened up and life is returning to normal, albeit under strict scrutiny.
The pace at which things open up, however, is something we still don’t know but it’s safe to assume that it’ll be slow. At some point in the future, we’ll be out and about again but the conditions under which we interact will change significantly. It is up to us, the hospitality industry professionals, to find out how we operate in a way that’ll adhere to the post-COVID realities and mandatory requirements.
Process Design Changes
Even after the 6-feet social distancing rules are long gone, there’s speculation that social distancing will have a “society-wide long-term” impact – the effect of which we’ll get to see in many forms.
Better Managed Queues
Businesses, especially fast-food chains and canteens, will need to figure out ways to prevent over-crowding of lines. More space will be needed and processes will need to reengineered to serve guests faster than ever before.
Linear Layouts Will Become More Popular
Restaurants will abstain from the previously popular free-flowing layouts and incline towards a more linear restaurant flows. Spaces will need to designed to make social distancing easy, not awkward.
Safe But Warm Customer Service
Customer service agents will need to figure out ways to serve guests/clients from a safe distance but, at the same time, they have the tough job to make the guests feel warm and respected.
More Transparency
F&B businesses will need to make more effort to communicate to their customers about their back of the house operations. We will see more open kitchen setups.
More Outdoor & Summer Events
Events will move out from the confines of indoor walls and will tend to be more outdoor-oriented. The previous notion of “winter weddings”, or winter events in general, might decline as consumers become more aware that summer months slow-down the spread of viruses and are, therefore, safer.
Food Preparation & Menu Engineering Changes
At Alpha, we’re still open for business and the first thing customers ask us is about the safety measures we’re taking. Customers will want food that is both safe and healthy. To ensure this, F&B operations need to re-designed.
Bigger Kitchens/More Offsite Operations
Social distancing will need to be practiced inside kitchens as well either through shift-rotations or physical alteration of the work environment. Certain processes may need to be moved off-site or be outsourced to accommodate this.
No More Shared Serviceware
When designing for buffets and banquets, leave out the shared serviceware items like tongs, serving spoons etc. We’ll see more served, pre-plated, or boxed portions of food in events now.
Decline of “Fresh” Items
Certain items that need to be consumed immediately like fried items and salads will lose some of their previous popularity as they will fail to hold the integrity of their flavors when boxed. Menus will need to be revised in a way that balances flavor integrity and longevity.
Rise of Disposable Packaging
Disposable packaging will become more and more popular. As responsible businesses, we need to find solutions that are convenient but don’t overlook the environmental costs.
Decline of “Open” Food
Salad bars, buffet counters will not be left out in the open without a cloche/cover. F&B businesses will need to give the consumers the confidence that their food is protected, even when they’re not around.
Prominent EHS Signs
Environment, Health, and Safety (EHS) signs, especially ones pointing out handwashing stations, handwashing instructions, will be now more prominently placed.
More Flexible Workforce
More Casuals
F&B businesses will cut down on the permanent workforce and opt for variable/causal labor. This will help them ramp up or dial down on capacity and maybe even give them more flexibility when operating off-site.
More Cross-Training
Permanent employees will need to be cross-trained across various functional areas so that fluctuations in activity levels can be easily managed.
Business Model & Philosophy Changes
Go Online or Go Bust
All businesses will move online whether we like it or not. F&B businesses will need to be more open towards aggregator apps (food delivery, booking apps, etc.) but at the same time build their own capacity so that they are not held hostage with those apps.
Last-mile Delivery Capabilities
Customers will be habituated with deliveries at their doorstep by the time this pandemic ends. Deliveries will become the norm. Last-mile logistics capabilities need to be set in place, either in-house or outsourced.
Investment in Technology
Businesses will need to invest in remote-working solutions like video-conferencing apps, project management solutions, etc. Requests for pointless meetings will be questioned and countered. Self-help digital technologies (digital greetings, interactive kiosks, etc.) could allow our consumers to enjoy hospitality without risking their health.
More Variable Cost, Less Fixed Costs
In line with opting for more casuals over permanent employees, F&B businesses will refrain from making big fixed cost commitments and will instead opt for variable cost headers. Since no one knows how long this situation will last, the ability to quickly ramp up and ramp down capacities has become more important than ever. And the only sustainable way to achieve it is by opting for variable inputs over fixed inputs.
Related: Reducing Your Cash Burn Rate During COVID-19
“Softer” Philosophies Determining Long-Term Success
Previously overlooked organizational values like resilience, grit, care, wellness (of employees and community both), work-life balance, etc. have now become the forefront guiding principles that will determine the long-term success of a business. Consumers are more likely to develop a soft-corner for and remember companies that show compassion in these difficult times. Businesses that can keep consumers engaged through these times will be the most benefitted in the future. Care is the new social currency.
This Too Shall Pass
While we don’t know when this situation will end, we do know that COVID-19 can’t alone determine the future of the F&B industry. We do. The F&B industry is here to stay. So don’t be disheartened if you’re an owner of a F&B business. Just stay put. Focus on building long-term capabilities so that when the race starts and the guns are fired, you’re at pole position.
Your feedback matters
I have been trying to write more regularly nowadays and I am keen on finding ways to improve it. So please do let me know what you think of my “predictions”. Do they make sense? Is there something I missed? Drop your two cents below.
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